[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Waiting For The Sun & Rain in South America. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/17/2025

We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, and Housing Starts MoM at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Net Long term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.

UD Import prices in December rose 0.1% from November, marking the 3rd consecutive month higher. Compared to a year ago, import prices were up 2.2%, marking the largest annualized increase in 2 years. Import prices have now increased in 9 of the last10 months on a annualized basis. Fuel imports rose by 1.4% marking the largest 1-month increase since April, and were 0.3% higher than a year ago, marking the first annualized price increase since July. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.1% for the month, marking the 7th consecutive month higher, led by increasing food, feed, and beverage import prices. The price index for exports rose 0.#% in December and were 1.8% higher than last year. Agriculture export prices rose 0.5% for the month but were 1.2% less than a year ago. Prices for non-agricultural industrial supplies were up 0.8% for the month, led by a 3.2% increase in fuel export prices. Both import and export prices remain well above the pre-pandemic lows, with export prices considerably higher. However, the US continues to run massive trade deficit as import volumes exceed exports by a large margin.

CBOT Corn Rally Fails at $4.80; US Exports Demand Becomes Routine:

CBOT corn ended weak, and the March CBOT’s inability to score new rally highs since Monday opens the market to a deeper correction if Argentine rain materializes as forecast this weekend. Similar to wheat & soybeans, the issue at current prices is a lack of Chinese buying. US export sales in the week ending Jan 9th were a decent 40 Mil/Bu, but notice the pace of new demand has been near a year ago levels since December. Argentine premiums continue to erode, with large carry-in supplies thee buffer against modest yield loss due to dryness. It’s difficult to be bullish above $4.80 spot. A range of $4.40=$480 is forecast until Brazilian safrinha yields are better understood in spring. Await further corrections before adding to end user supply coverage.

Have A Great Trading Day!



A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. - an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading data-on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.