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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Fed Decision Day. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/17/2025

We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Housing Starts Prel, Housing Starts MoM, Building Permits Prel, and Building Permits MoM Prel at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Interest Rate Projection, 1st yr., 2nd yr., 3rd yr., Current, and Longer at 1:00 P.M., Fed Press Conference at 1:30 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.

The Federal Reserve reported that the US Industrial Production Index in August rose 0.1% from July and was 0.9% higher than a year ago. This marked the 9th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, which has not happened since the first half of 2023. The Index in August rose to 103.9, the highest since June, and the 2nd highest since December 2018. Manufacturing output makes up about 78% of total industrial production, and was up 0.2% from July and was 0.9% from July, while the index for utilities was down 2%, led by a decline in electronic utilities. Capacity utilization was steady for the month at 77.4%. The industrial Production Index has long been a bellwether for US financial recession, and has been signaling a recession from 2023-2024. But nine consecutive months of growth have greatly diminished the odds from a US economic recession.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Recovers ; Nearly Tests Open Chart Gap $4.33; Competition Abounds;

CBOT corn futures recovered Monday’s losses amid lingering US yield uncertainty/concern. Harvest data will be available over the next 30 days, and a comprehensive trend will be established by the opening days of October. Early yield data is showing improvement in IL, IN, and IA. However, as discussed in today’s featured report, the addition of 8 Mil acres in the US year-over-year buffers considerably against a future 3-6 BPA trimming of US yield. There’s no need to ration or encourage South American/US seeding expansion. A test of $4.35-$4.40 December provides the next sales opportunity. Ukrainian fob premiums are down $.10-$.11/Bu as crop estimates there rise to 33-34 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 32. This allows for Ukrainian corn exports in 25/26 to expand 5-6 MMT’s (210-250 Mil Bu) on the previous year. Argentine origin is the worlds cheapest. New crop sorghum bids in KS are quoted $.90-$1.20 under Dec CBOT futures – down $.10-$.15 from last week in some locations. US 2025/26 corn exports, and WASDE woefully overstates feed/residual demand. Be prepared to add to 2025/26 and 2026/27 on a further 5-9 cent rally. This year’s US corn harvest will be larger than last year’s total starting corn supply.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.