[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


WASDE Uneventful + Space X Goes Public Today. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/12/2026

We kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M.

Space X is expected to show the largest Initial Public Offering (IPO) in history on NASDQ this morning. This should make Elon Musk the first Trillionaire in history and investors are pegged to see wealth in the millions. Free Enterprise is AWESOME! Will be a huge day on Wall St.

On the USDA front it did not offer any major changes in the June WASDE report, which was typically uneventful. Changes were primarily a fine-tuning for the summer row crops. Corn and soybean projections were essentially unchanged from May, leaving 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.960 Bil Bu and soybeans at 310 Mil Bu, with farm prices at $4.40 and $11.40, respectively. The largest adjustment was in wheat, where smaller winter wheat output cut all wheat production 18 Mil Bu, lowered end stocks to 744 Mil Bu, but the farm price forecast was lowered by $.50-$6.009. Cotton stocks also tightened modestly, through production and price were unchanged. The livestock section was more active. USDA lowered 2026 beef production by 110 Mil Lbs. as slower steer, heifer, and cow slaughter offsets heavier weights, while broiler production was raised 228 Mil Lbs. Net red meat and poultry production increased but the report still keeps the cattle supply story supportive and the corn/soybean outlook broadly neutral into late June.

Central US Weather Pattern Discussion

Needed Sunshine Follows Thursday Storms in Midwest:

Heavy t-storms work across the eastern Midwest for a second day on Thursday. The heaviest precipitation accumulation will favor IL & IN, where rainfall of .50-1.25” is forecast. Beginning Friday a welcomed stretch of mild/sunny conditions prevail into June 17th, and following recent heavy rainfall in eastern KS, MO, IA, IL, WI, IN, and KY, a period of dryness is desired. For now, global grain production loss has been confined to the US wheat balamce sheet, which tightened further via yesterday’s WASDE. Elsewhere supplies are adequate and favorable weather/solid vegetation health forced USDA to hike South American corn production as well as Black Sea wheat production. Rallies will be challenged through the balance of June as physical supplies are worked through and as the coverage of Central US dryness shrinks. June heat/dryness will; be avoided in the Midwest this season.

Ag Resources Analysis of USDA June WASDE

WASDE’s changes to US corn supply/demand were nearly completely offsetting. Ethanol grind was trimmed 25 Mil Bu. Exports were raised a similar amount. Old crop end stocks were lifted 3 Mil Bu to 2,145 Mil, which added a net 3 Mil Bu to projected new crop carryover. Corn price discovery will; remain a battle between record South American supplies, Northern Hemisphere weather and Chinese demand expected to appear in late summer. For now, supply pressure dominates. The Argentine harvest is 44% complete. Safrinha harvest in Mato Grosso nears 10% complete by this weekend. Early southern US corn harvests follow in August. USDA hiked combined Argentine + Brazilian production in calendar year 2026 to a record 197 MMT’s and raised exports 3 MMT’s to a record 89 MMT’s. South American corn exports from June to late spring 2027 will be up 18 MMT’s, or 700 Mil Bu, on the previous year.

Ag Resources Corn Analysis of USDA June WASDEARC’s balance sheets, like USDA’s, are little changed from previously. Final old crop stocks are forecast at 2,245 Mil Bu, and in July ARC expects even lower industrial use to offset even higher projected export disappearance. The details of final stocks then come down to feed/residual disappearance, which ARC expects to fall a bit short of USDA’s annual forecast. In any case there will be no shortage of physical supplies over the next 100 days. Longer term, what’s unique about 2026 is the incredible growth in global corn demand & world trade. Already it’s difficult to project much if any contraction in US export demand in 26/27, and China securing 10-15 MMT’s from autumn to winter trims US end stocks to 1.6 Bil Bu. This is still adequate, but implies higher harvest lows and a re-test of $5.00+ in early 2027. A yield above 186 is needed to keep end stocks above 2.0 Bil Bu. China is unlikely to appear in the US market until late summer, but more so than in recent years it’s critical to leverage summer price weakness with new and long-term purchases spot corn is undervalued below $4.00.

Have A Great Trading Day!



A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. - an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading data-on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.