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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Global Grain Oversupply Persists Despite USDA Adjustments. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/09/2026

We kickoff the day with Unemployment, Non Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel, and Fed Kashkari Speech at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Barkin Speech at 12:35 P.M.

Ahead of January USDA Reports on Monday, CBOT option volatility remains historically low. Corn volume has risen in recent weeks from the harvest low of 12.3%to 14.7% this week, but it is the lowest for early January since 2017. Soybean volume bottomed in late January at 11.6% and has since increased to 12.9%, but it is also the lowest for early January since 2017. Wheat volume at 19.5% is the highest in 6 weeks, but is down from 22.5% last year. Heading into the January USDA reports, the CBOT ag options markets are not expressing any significant supply worry, which is likely due to record large world wheat, corn, and soybean supplies. The bulls will need to be fed by NASS.

Corn Comments & Analysis

Corn Rally Pauses; Market Structure Center on Abundant World Feed Supply:

Corn ended slightly weaker on Thursday. Key US yield and stocks data is awaited on Monday, but even assuming a US corn yield of 181-184 and enlarged Sep-Nov feed use, US feedgrain prices are dominated by abundant supply. It’s an early to Brazil’s rainy season in Mar/Apr or major Midwest weather adversity that alters this structure, and so clients should be prepared to extended spot and forward hedges on any pre or post USDA-inspired rally. The Argentine corn crop is rated 75% GD/EX, down from 82% last week but a record high for early January. The crop a year ago was rated at just 46% GD/EX. Yield last year was slightly above trend. Argy corn crop potential is high with incoming soaking rain being timely. US corn export sales in the week ending Jan 1st fell to 15 Mil Bu, a crop year low. This is due to holiday-thinned trading but the burden on weekly/monthly US exports is increasing as competition emerges from 10.5% Argentine wheat and competitive Argentine and Ukrainian FOB offers. The US has reached its corn export zenith in corn must be based on supply, wither a lower US corn yield or adverse weather in South America.

Thursday CBOT open interest fell 2,656 contracts in corn but rose 4,628 contracts in soybeans and 429 contracts in wheat. Soy oil open interest was up 3,215 contracts with soymeal up 3,982 contracts. There has been a modest flow of capital into CBOT grains in the new year. The index fund rebalance will continue for another four trading sessions. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures have recvered on short covering and modest new inflows to test chart resistance at $10.65-$10.75 in March soybeans, $4.50-$4.60 in March Corn, and $5.20-$5.30 in March wheat. A bullish USDA report is required to add to these gains amid the world’s oversupply of grain.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.