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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Big Beautiful Bill Expected to Pass House. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/03/2025

We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless Claims, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Continuing Jobless Claims, Government Payrolls, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final and S&P Global Services Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Factory Orders ex Transportation, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment, and ISM Services Prices at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M.

The July employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released today. Ahead of the report, the ADP private payrolls data suggested a decline in the number of jobs created by private businesses during June. The ADP data showed the US lost 33,000 private jobs during the month, the first negative print since March 2023, and the largest loss since August 2020. All of the decline was due to job losses in the service sector, which shed 66,000 jobs. Professional/business service, education, and financial activities sectors all lost jobs, while leisure/hospitality/transportation/utilities, and information added jobs. The goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, led by manufacturing, construction, and mining. ADP noted that there have been minimal layoffs, but employers are hesitant to replace departing workers.

Central US Weather Pattern Update

NOAA Adopts Wetter Midwest Forecast; July Temp Outlook Trending Wetter:

The Central US forecast is favorable as the major forecasting models agree that regular rain resumes in the E Midwest after the next 4-5 days. Soaking rain continues to favor KS, NE, and the NW Corn Belt. NOAA’s updated 7-day precipitation has rain being added to IL & IN July 8-10. Drought will be absent from KS/NE, which is unique vs. recent crop years. Most important is that extreme heat is unlikely over the next 10-12 days. Maximum temps in the E Plains and primary Midwest will be capped in the mid-80’s. If current 10-day forecasts verifies, the time for weather adversity to impact corn during key reproductive stages shrinks rapidly, and it remains that mid-summer will be marked by a quick-moving jet stream and lack of pattern stagnation. The routine nature of summer 2025 is forecast to persist and favors crops during July.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Bounces on US/China Rumors ; Fund Short Covering Noted:

CBOT corn futures ended sharply higher following Trump’s announcement that a trade deal has been struck with Vietnam amid rumors that US President Trump will announce China purchase plans for US ag goods in the US’s July 4th celebration rally in Des Moines, Iowa this evening. Trump’s rural Iowa rally is expected highlights the 5 months of progress that has been scored by President Trump with new trade deals that will benefit American agriculture. The Trump Administration announced a trade deal with Vietnam Wednesday that will feature $2.9 Bil of US ag product purchases in 2025. However, this compares Vietnam’s total spent on US ag in 2024 of $3.4 Bil. Vietnam will largely purchase US nuts, fruits and other horticultural products. Historically, Vietnam has purchased 14-16 MMT’s of non US corn, and dropping importing duties to 0% (from 1-2%) should help US competitiveness. Whether rumors of China’s pending US ag purchases are correct will be known tonight and traded on the CBOT opening Sunday night. Ag Resources (ARC) notes it is skeptical of large Chinese corn demand amid their own domestic surplus. Caution is warranted against turning bullish of corn as US weather is favorable into mid-July and above trend yields are forecast. Catch up on forward hedges on any further rally. Soaking rain impacts the Mexican corn crop in the next 10 days.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.