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Market Thoughts And Timing

Ronald L. Rosen
rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

May 2nd, 2005

Weekly Update and Comment

"Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse" W.D.Gann

"There is an appointed time for everything. And there is a time for every event under heaven..." Ecclesiastes 3:1

CRUDE OIL AND THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

I am not sure why young folks are mostly in a hurry and older folks are mostly not in a hurry. I guess the simple answer is older folks are closer to the end. So who’s in a hurry?

In my later years I find monthly and quarterly long term charts very informative. I have included daily, weekly and quarterly charts of both crude oil and the Dow Jones Industrial average. The quarterly charts are very interesting.

You will find my comments on top of each chart as you scroll down.

The Daily Delta chart for crude oil shows a bottom due on May 10th plus or minus 4 days. After that a rally up to Red # 5 and Green # 8. Green # 8 is due May 25th. When two numbers are due close together the move is often quite strong.

The weekly chart shows # 9(green) and # 1 (yellow) low due around June 15th. There is a problem with this. If you read the Delta story on the Delta site you will note that #’s 1and 2 can invert. # 1 currently due to be a low could end up a high. Only #’s 1 and 2 can invert, no other numbers can or do. I believe # 1 (yellow) will remain a low but I will keep you informed as to its progress.

The quarterly chart is very interesting and shows the very long term head and shoulder bottom. Since the head and shoulder bottom formation took about 12 years to form and complete I doubt it will be over soon. In fact this could be our best confirmation that we are in a long term commodity Bull Market. However as you well know long-term Bull markets have very scary corrections. We may be in just such a period for several commodities.

The Dow Jones average appears to have topped but we may have made a medium # 8 low and are headed for a medium # 9 high. It’s getting late in the year for a new high. Incidentally if you look very closely the Delta Medium turning points for the Dow are a great trading tool. The diamonds (DIA) are a conservative way to trade these turning points.

The next long term low is due late in the year in November at Yellow # 6.

The monthly chart shows that the top trend line has been violated and, to repeat, the next long term low is due in November.

The quarterly chart will probably be our best indicator as to when the up trend will Be violated. A violation this quarter occurs at Dow 9600. Next quarter it will be Dow 9840. Delta allows you to turn off the T.V.gurus, the economic experts, other market prognosticators and just relax and watch the various markets make their expected moves. Delta gives us Time not price.

That’s why the head of my reports will always say “Time is more important then price; when time is up price will reverse” -- W.D.Gann

Stay Well,
Ronald L. Rosen
rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

May 2nd, 2005

Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.