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Eight Strategic Factors to Consider in 2012

Written by Strategic Studies
January 10th, 2012
email: admin@oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/

Rarely in the past six decades has global context counted for as much in strategic forecasting — trend analysis — as it does at the dawn of 2012. Reliance on stove-piped analysis of “strategic sectors” — such as economic and financial issues, security issues, politics, geopolitics, resources and energy, sociology and religion, and so on — will produce skewed and unreliable estimates, and will tend to favor linear extrapolations of recent experience. A study of broad contextual factors, including an expanded view of history, will show how cycles and confluences of trends potentially play a greater disruptive role than at any time since the end of World War II.

We have, in recent writings, stressed the longer-term trends and outlook, but it is important to see how the strategic environment is likely to play out during 2012. Equally, it is important that these trends (and others) are seen collectively, and not separately.

  1. Global Economic and Financial Trends
  2. Global Energy Supply and Demand
  3. Strategic Recovery by the US
  4. EU/Eurozone Prospects
  5. Iran-US-Israeli Military Engagement
  6. The Arab “Spring Break”
  7. A Return to Chaos in Nigeria
  8. Stability on the Korean Peninsula

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Written by Strategic Studies
January 10th, 2012
email: admin@oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/




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