What is the Point Spread on WW III?
Boobus Americanus seems to utterly have lost the ability to think for themselves. So when the totally controlled US media mumbles on about how Al Assad needs replacing ,no American could dream of asking, "Why? What did he do to us?" The answer, of course, is nothing. He didn't attack us, doesn't threaten us and is the democratically elected leader of Syria. You don't have to like him.
I am an equal opportunity anarchist. I despise all governments equally. That said, I don't support military overthrow of legal, sovereign nations by anyone. Syria is a sovereign nation led by a legal ruler. That's a lot more than can be said of several of the players in our new World Series of War or Super Bowl of Conflict or simply World War III.
After World War II, a Military Tribunal was held in Nuremberg Germany that determined the waging of aggressive war, "essentially an evil thing... to initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime: it is the supreme international crime, differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole."
As I write, Turkish forces have been shelling Syria for almost a week. They have ground forces on the border and have shifted small units into Syria. In the south of Iraq and Syria, Saudi Arabia has mobilized the largest military maneuvers in the nation's history. Estimated participation in "Operation North Thunder" indicates between 150,000 and 350,000 troops from 20 countries are participating. As a result, both Saudi Arabia and Turkey seem poised to invade Syria in a war of aggression in order to overthrow Al Assad.
Since we seem on the verge of World War III, just what is the point spread between the teams? I have to dumb down this piece so Americans can faintly understand it and putting it in terms of a point spread makes it easier. Between Fox News and fluoride in the water, Americans seem to have lost the ability to think for themselves.
Syria is obviously the most important team; after all it's a home game. For now.
The military conflict in Syria goes back to early 2011. The western press calls it a civil war but it is hardly a civil war. The legal and democratically elected government of Syria has been attacked on a variety of fronts by terrorists sponsored directly and financed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Israel, the US, the UK and France have all contributed money and arms to what is generally considered ISIS. So the totally controlled press in the west talks about "fighting" ISIS when in fact they both created ISIS, and they continue to finance ISIS.
Given the overwhelming support of foreign nations to ISIS and other terrorist groups, the army of Syria had lost considerable ground until Russia stepped up to the plate in 2015.
Currently Russian, Kurdish and Syrian forces have ISIS on the ropes and the terrorists are on the verge of total destruction in Syria. The state sponsors of terrorism in Syria have their knickers in a twist as a result.
Israel is a central player in this game even if the media utterly ignores their participation. As late as 1996 in a position paper prepared by dual national Neocons suggested that, rather than pursuing a "comprehensive peace" with the entire Arab world, Israel should work jointly with Jordan and Turkey to "contain, destabilize, and roll-back" those entities that are threats to all three. Of course the Neocons were referring to Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria.
Israel managed to drag the US and other allies into the debacle in Iraq that continues to fester. Western forces turned Libya into a hell on earth with the entire country turned into a conflict between warlords after the legal ruler was murdered. Libya has changed from the richest country in Northern Africa to a giant wasteland. Every country other than Israel now recognizes that the invasion of Libya was a colossal mistake.
Regardless of what shows up in the controlled media, Israel is certainly a player in the conflict with Syria. They have provided both supplies and weapons to the terrorists. They remain a wild card with their immediate intentions unknown.
Israel is a state founded on a concept of constant warfare. Israel needs enemies to keep focused. They have no intentions of ever turning to peace. They stage a series of constant wars, one melding into another. They are armed with nuclear weapons, submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles from anywhere in the world. They have the most experienced organized army in the Middle East.
In 2006 Israel invaded Lebanon with the intention of destroying Hezbollah. The Western press sort of mumbled about the fight going on in favor of Israel. The Asia Times wrote a comprehensive series of three articles that told the truth. Israel got their butts kicked when they fought an actual armed opponent. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here and part 3 is here.
Israel does manage to bomb Gaza back to the Stone Age on a regular basis. Given the overwhelming military force possessed by Israel, all they ever really manage to accomplish is to further damage their international image. Israeli forces seem most effective when they are killing teenagers.
It's entirely possible that Israel could stage a false flag operation and even provide Turkey and or Saudi Arabia with limited tactical nuclear weapons but the IDF lacks the courage to fight an actual uniformed army. They would far rather have their proxy forces do their fighting for them as was done in Iraq. Israel remains a wild card but I highly suspect Putin will have had a heart to heart conversation with Netanyahu. Israel threatens the entire world with their 400 nuclear weapons and the "Samson Option" save two. That would be China and Russia.
When you are driving to the big game in your brand new Ford F-350 truck with the dual wheels in back and a clunker almost runs into you, you are the one to swerve, you have the most to lose. The fool in the clunker doesn't care what happens to him.
Both Russia and China have the ability to take a lot of damage and still survive. Israel doesn't. All Putin would have to suggest is that unless Netanyahu either sits on his hands or Tel Aviv gets turned into a giant hole in the ground, he will get Netanyahu's attention. All Putin has to worry about then is a little extrajudicial assassination on the part of Israel. Carrying a dead man's switch in his hand would be a good alternative.
The most powerful legal position in Turkey is the Prime Minister. Erdogan was the Prime Minister from 2003 until 2014. Erdogan is now the President and that is a titular position but the current Prime Minister seems ok with letting Erdogan make all the decisions. Erdogan and his son have been doing over $1 billion a year in stolen oil from Syria and Iraq. Their military and financial support of ISIS seems far more designed to protect their rice bowl than to accomplish any political goals by destroying Syria.
Turkey has a large and powerful army, one of the most powerful in the Middle East. Major units of that army are poised to invade Syria. The ostensible goal is to fight ISIS and the Kurds but since ISIS IS Turkish, their argument holds no water.
I wrote a piece on the 15th of February suggesting that Turkey would stage a false flag operation in order to provide a legal justification for the invasion of Syria. In a way I was incorrect. On the 18th the New York Times reported a car bombing in Ankara that killed 28. In a marvelous development right out of CSI, the Turks managed to retrieve the fingerprints from the suicide bomber and managed to identify him as a member of a Kurdish splinter group in less than six hours. That was almost magic because the terrorists right index finger landed in a small alley in Paris and his left thumb landed in Sydney Australia.
I accept that I was dead wrong in suggesting Turkey would stage "a" false flag operation. They didn't do "a" false flag operation, they did two. Since the first bombing was so obviously a false flag operation, they did another false flag bombing the next day as reported on CNN.
The real issue with Turkey in this Super Bowl of Murder or World War III will be just how willing the brave soldiers of Turkey will be to die for the crimes of the Erdogan family. There are going to be a lot of dead Turks soon. I don't think it's going to take all that long for the survivors to get it. They aren't dying to protect Turkey. They are dying to protect the ill-gotten gains of Erdogan.
Saudi Arabia is the remaining big player on the challenger's side. Again, the country is being run; not by the legal ruler, but by 30-year-old Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Deputy Crown Prince bin Salman is 2nd in line to the Saudi throne. The Crown Prince is Mohammad bin Nayef and is considered loyal to the interests of the US.
Prince bin Salman as defense minister launched the disaster that is the war in Yemen where one of the most well equipped armies in the Middle East has been fought to a standstill by a ragtag local army intent on overthrowing the puppet government supported by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia spends $56 billion a year in defense spending. But their army is mostly made up of mercenaries led by Saudi nationals. If they can't defeat Yemen, the poorest nation in the region, they stand no chance against Russia/Syria. There are unconfirmed reports of what appears to be a tactical nuclear weapon used in Yemen on the part of Saudi Arabia. Certainly Saudi Arabia funded the Pakistan nuclear weapons program and there have been reports for years that Pakistan would provide nukes to Saudi Arabia upon demand.
Saudi Arabia is a loose cannon at present. With Prince bin Salman making the decisions, we essentially have a 30 year-old kid with no military experience attempting to wage a war of aggression against a nation with Russia as an ally. The real question will be just how many mercenaries have to die for bin Salman before the nation starts a revolution. We already have some idea of what the Saudi generals think. A few days ago, ten of the top Saudi generals sent a letter to bin Nayef warning him that any incursion into Syria could lead to unintended consequences.
Russia has a treaty dating back to 1971 with Syria that allows them use of the port of Tartus. That is Russia's only Mediterranean warm water port. Russia entered into the conflict on September 30, 2015 when they began to bomb the terrorists on behalf of the government of Syria in support of Al Assad. Russia has made it clear that they intend to help defend Syria and would consider any invasion force an act of aggression against their ally and a declaration of war.
Russian military tactics are weak on defense and exceptionally strong on counter attack. If Turkey invades Syria, they will have the military upper hand for probably a week or so. Russia will allow Syrian forces to fall back in order to allow Turkey to make it perfectly obvious that this is an act of aggression. Once Turkey is fully committed and their supply lines stretched, Russia will attack with all the power they possess. They will hit Turkey in ways Turkey cannot even imagine. They will use tactical nukes and tens of thousands of Turks will die in the exchange.
If Saudi Arabia enters the fray in any way, with either ground forces or their air force, their oil fields will be destroyed. Their capital cities will be destroyed. Tens of thousands of their military will die.
Readers should remember that World War I started with minor events just as stupid as that of an attempted regime change in Syria. At the conclusion of World War I ,17 million had been killed, 11 million military and 6 million innocent civilians. At the end of World War II 60 million had died. In the Soviet Union there were 30 times as many deaths as in the US during the war. Russians know how to die in war. They also know how to win.
Three empires ended as a result of World War I. The Ottoman Empire was broken in pieces, the Russian Empire collapsed and the Austria/Hungary Empire fell apart.
Few wars are quite as clear as the upcoming conflict. It is a clear act of aggressive war on part of the US, Israel, France, the UK, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. All of those countries are calling for regime change and are directly supporting the terrorists. Depending on how long it will take for adult supervision to take over there may be from tens of thousands to hundreds of millions of deaths.
At the conclusion there will be war crimes trials. This conflict has the potential for being the demise of the Saudi regime, Turkey as a regional power and the end of the road for Israel. The US has a fleeting tiny chance of showing responsibility and respect for international law. Should it not take affirmative action there is an excellent chance that for the first time in history a Nobel Peace Prize winner will be standing in the dock accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
And there is an excellent chance that it will mark the end of the American empire.
The western media is in a feeding frenzy demonizing ISIS daily. But they ignore who is fighting ISIS and who is fighting for ISIS. The last vestiges of credibility of the media are on the line.
I'm betting on the Russians. The line is Russia and 50 points. In any war it always helps to hold the high ground. Putin does. The West does not.
Those who launch wars rarely win them. Wars are very easy to start but very hard to end. This war needs to end soon or it will grow far bigger than we can imagine.
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January 19th, 2020
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