PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS
October 27th, 2009
Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca
Time to Let the Air Out of the Nat Gas Balloon
The natural gas price has doubled since the beginning of September and is entering an optimum time frame for a seasonal high. In most years the price tops between October 25th and November 5th, turns lower through November, bounces in December and then trends lower into a January bottom.
The two high inventory years such as this that saw prices appreciably higher after mid November were the prolonged hurricane season in 1995 and severe winter of 2002. In the other years prices saw an initial decline of 22% to 36% through November. In addition to futures contracts, there are ETFs and/or options available on the following: UNG, GAS.TO and HND.TO.
For future reference; years with low inventories (circled in red) generally see a high in December.
BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS
October 27th, 2009
CHARTWORKS WEBSITE:: www.institutionaladvisors.com
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