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Crude Oil

from ChartWorks:: published by Institutional Advisors

Bob Hoye
September 10th, 2006

The inability of the crude oil rally to carry through on the upside by mid August and breakout through the July resistance suggested that a downside correction was very likely in the coming weeks. Prices are now $9 below the August high and approaching the 50-week moving average ($66.90) where it usually finds support. The weekly RSI(14) is currently at 46. Anything in the mid to low 40’s is generally enough to create a bounce off the moving average. However, it is way too early to be looking for a seasonal low. This is more likely to occur in October or later (see table on following below).

If prices decline through $67 then we must be aware of the implications.

Independent of the seasonal influences, each instance in the past two decades that the oil market has closed below its 50-week moving average and then followed through with a lower low (1985, 87, 90, 91, 92, 95, 97, 01 and 03) it has declined to the lower Keltner Band (currently $59). Weekly RSI(14) readings have been in the range of 33 to 39 at the bottom.

Seasonality as it relates to the mid summer rally

September 10th, 2006
Bob Hoye

EMAIL:: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS WEBSITE:: www.institutionaladvisors.com

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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