June 10th, 2023

ICONS Home :: Archives :: Contact  


Technical observations of

Crude Oil

Following the weekly and monthly upside exhaustion alerts in June and early July Crude oil has stepped its way lower, pausing at the 34-day Bollinger Band, 100-day moving average, 200-day moving average and then turning up from the lower Keltner Band. The seasonal rally came late, as part of a short-squeeze in the expiring October futures contract. This has brought prices back to overhead resistance. Following the current rally it would be normal for prices to stage another test of the lower Keltner Band in the $87 to $90 range.

We’ve written about the Keltner Band in oil over the years. When crude oil prices exceed the upper band and then violate the 50-week average, support is found once the price declines to the level that the lower band was at while the market made its most recent high. The low is in place as of September 17th when oil generated a weekly RSI(14) reading of 36, right in line with the RSI’s seen in the eight previous examples (1987 through 2003). From there one can anticipate a rally lasting a maximum of six weeks (normally two to four weeks).

Crude has a tendency to double bottom and in the case of the Keltner Bands the test of the lows occur ten to eleven weeks later, giving us the next targeted bottom and buying opportunity around the first week of December.

All instances since 1987

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.


Home :: Archives :: Contact  


June 10th, 2023

© 2023