The price for the uranium
Thomas Chaize
May 9th, 2005
Bitter to have approached the situation
of the petroleum and the long-term natural
gas< here is a small study on the situation of the uranium (soon I'll see
the coal).
The gas and the coal follow the increase of the price for the petroleum, what's
about uranium?
I. Production.
- The uranium serves to product some electricity in nuclear power reactor,
world demand in electricity is more and more important. It is for that reason
that there is most nuclear power reactor.
- There are 18 countries producer of uranium in the world, 52 % of the production
of 2003 is produced in Canada and 30 % is produced in Australia.
The first four producers of uranium product 56 % of the world production,
and the first two represent 33 of the world production.
- Disarmament should answer between and 10 in 12 % of the demand in the 10
to 15 years to come.
- There are not big mineng of uranium which opens, it there are only closed,
only one very sharp increase in the price for the uranium can boost investment
to open of new appearances mining.
- In 2003 the biggest countries producing of uranium are: Canada (10 457 tons),
Australia ( 7572 tons), Kazakhstan (3300 tons), Niger ( 3143 ), Russia (3150
tons), Nanibia (2036 tons), Uzbekistan (1770 tons), USA (846 tons), Ukraine
(800 tons), South Africa ( 824 ), China ( 750 ).
II. Demand.
- There are 440 nuclear reactors in the world in 32 countries (we can add
24 in construction in 2005, 40 in project and 75 to propose), it is China
which has the most important program of construction of nuclear power station
to answer his lack of electricity.
-In 2003 there was 92 million pounds of uranium of produced, what makes that
51 % of the world demand.
- Small theoretical calculations:
In 2003, there were 440 nuclear power reactor in the world which needed 68
357 tons of ores of uranium, what makes average 155 tons of uranium a year
and by nuclear power reactor.
There is 24 reactor in construction in the world, 24*155 = 3720 tons of uranium
a year.
There are 40 reactors in projects in the world 40*155 = 6200 tons a year.
There are 73 reactors which are proposing to the construction 73*155 = 11315
tons of uranium a year. So there are 21 235 tons of uranium in more in the
years to come, what makes an increase of the order of 30 %. This is only theoretical
and absolutely not in precision, but allows to have an order of height of
the future demand.
- The demand of uranium of 2004 is of 66 658 tons ( 170 000 000 books(pounds))
and production should again cover only 50 % of the demand. Demand is superior
to the offer since 1984, this deficit exists for 20 years and the strategic
stocks seem not more managed to cover deficit.
- There are not stock exchange of the uranium, price negotiates by contract.
There is 15 % of the market of the uranium which negotiates in the short run
with contracts less twelve months and 85 % which negotiates in the long run
with contracts from 2 to 10 years, but generally contracts are from 3 to 5
years.
Demand should grow from 1 to 2 % year in the years to come.
III. Price.
- Distance between the offer and demand is controlled since10 a years by the
strategic sale of stocks, the exhaustion of these stock should make gone up
durably the prices for the pound of uranium.
- The price of the uranium is 23 dollars and it had bottom in 6 dollars the
pound of uranium. The price for the uranium went out of a 20 years old horizontal
canal which had a support in 6 dollars and a resistance in 16 dollars. The
exit of this canal is very positive and promises a beautiful increase. In
spite of the doubling of price the uranium is still in the middle of the rates
of 1978 which are in 43 dollars the pound.
- The price for the pound of uranium should easily approach its ancient summits
in the zone of 43 dollars in the years to come.
In the long tern the price for the uranium is going to know a sharp increase
for several reasons:
- Offer: numerous years between the increase in prices of the uranium and
the opening of the new mines of uranium is needed.
- Demand: demand is going to increase because of the big number of nuclear
power reactor in construction.
- Gap between offer and demand of uranium is very old and stocks are going
to end.
- The increase of the price for the petroleum incites to turn to the other
types of energies (coal, gas and uranium).
- Demand in electricity should continue to increase in the next years, especially
in China.
- The problems of climatic reheating incite countries to build nuclear power
reactor.
To summarize the uranium as the petroleum and the natural gas be going to
have their price which increases in the years to come, even reasons are identical:
increase of the demand and decline of the offer.
Thomas Chaize
Mailing
list
dani2989@voila.fr
Robert J. Moriarty